Hurricane , rather tropical storm Rina, is quickly fizzling out thanks to some higher shear wind shear to the south/southwest along with dry air intrusion from the northwest.  She is still tropical storm strength with sustained winds of 70 mph and higher gusts, along with an expected surge of 1-3 feet.

Rina is expected to do yet another 180 over the next few days as she continues to weaken, eventually turning south before dropping below an organized depression.

In other news, Denver went from 80 degrees on Monday, to 4 inches on snow yesterday!  The Denver Examiner and Paul Douglas provided this time lapse of the current snow:

ZJS

The 18th named storm of 2011, Hurricane Rina, is currently heading WNW at 3 mph (slow…) with her cross-hairs on Playa Del Carmen in the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina was officially named at 11 PM on Sunday night. If the season ended today, 2011 would be the 6th most active season since 1851.

Current conditions:

11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 25
Location: 17.4°N 83.9°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: WNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb

Rina is forecasted to gain strength, topping out at 7AM EST tomorrow at 120mph (due to high heat content in the sea surface and favorable wind shear environment). The system has the models confused after a predicted landfall Wednesday at 8AM in the Yucatan. A pocket of higher shear, coupled with some dry air to the north, will definitely impact Rina, but the steering currents are unclear at this point. This is reflected with a 5-day forecast position somewhere between the SW coast of Florida, and 80 miles north of its current position (a complete 180 degree turn in 96 hours!)

Late October systems are far from uncommon (see NHC image below). Due to the early strength and unknown track of Rina, we will keep close watch over the next few days as she interacts with land, and is impacted by the shear and dryer air.

ZJS

Tropical Storm Maria has survived a bout with some moderate shear which nearly brought her to depression-strength over the night.  However buoy data shows that the pressure is dropping around the system, and while the coldest towers have diminished, the overall convection of the tropical system has become more organized.    There is still not a clearly defined eye, but the next 6 hours will provide some great insight as to Maria’s future.

From the satellite images there appears to be some good outflow at the edges of the storm.  And the batch of dry air directly to the south has inhibited convection on that side of the low, but has not been wrapped into the system (though it could be due to lack of low level circulation at this time).

The latest model runs (and NHC forecast) are in decent agreement, taking Maria just NE of Puerto Rico, and then curving to the North at roughly 96 hours (Tuesday morning).  But given the current state of Maria, the path could change a few times depending on how quickly and to what extent she strengthens.   Speaking of strength, the NHC puts the start of increased chance for HU strength at Monday morning, while the model runs are forecasting a bit earlier on Sunday evening.

Current Conditions:

8:00 AM AST Fri Sep 9
Location: 14.0°N 56.9°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Tropical Storm Nate is predicted to reach hurricane strength tonight/early tomorrow and make landfall in central Mexico late Sunday night most likely as a category-1 storm.

Note: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) along with NCEP have released a press statement noting that the climate has returned to La Nina conditions (from Neutral) and are predicted to strengthen into the winter.  These conditions should continue to support what is already an  active season for Atlantic tropical activity

ZJS

Tropical Storm Lee (or rather whats left of it) is moving up the East coast after bringing heavy rains from LA to the East Coast.  Double Digit inches of rain were recorded in AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, and TN.

Katia made it all the way to category-3 with winds up to 135 mph sustained late Monday.  She (it) is now weakening as colder waters and stronger shear are steering the system north and eventually to the northeast at a much swifter pace over the next 3 days.

Before we can catch our breath, the 13th named storm of the season, Maria, was officially declared a tropical storm at 11AM on Wednesday September 7th.

And before I could finish this post, TS Nate was christened in the GOM!

Current Conditions:

5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 7
Location: 13.2°N 44.2°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb

Maria has the models baffled pretty well.  There is a wide range of potential tracks over the next 5 days.  There doesnt appear to be any dry air issues, but some instability which is firing up storms south of Katia near the Lesser Antilles  may be the culprit of some shear.  The models call for little strengthening over the next 5 days keeping the system at TS-strength.

We currently have two active systems in the Atlantic (well, 1 in the GOM).  Hurricane Katia is spinning just NE of the Lesser Antilles and is now officially the 2nd hurricane of the 2011 season.

Current Conditions:

5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 2
Location: 18.4°N 53.5°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb

Katia will be one to watch over the next 3 days.  The NHC has backed off its earlier forecast that Katia would be major-hurricane strength (winds 111+) by Wednesday, now only indicating Cat-2 winds with a 15% chance of cat-3.  In addition, the models seem to take a more N-NW track earlier than what the NHC is predicting.

It should be noted that very few of the models at this point forecast out far enough to capture Katia’s turn, but those that do are calling for a very sharp turn to the North 120 hours from now.

Not to be underestimated, Tropical Storm Lee is building in the GOM.  There is a small possibility that it reaches hurricane strength (sustained winds in excess of 74mph), but the bigger issue will be the immense precipitation that is being forecast.  Due to the high humidity and slow movement of the low, Lee is expected to dump as much as 20 inches in parts of the South.  While much of the area is under a drought, 20 inches will undoubtedly result in localized flooding.

Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the LA and MS coast, and TS wind conditions are likely to begin impacting these areas later tonight.  Because Lee is so slow to move, much of the affected region could see these winds for days, not to mention higher gusts.

Current Conditions:

4:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 2
Location: 27.5°N 91.5°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

We will monitor the system throughout the weekend.  Happy Labor Day!